Speculating the Future by Learning about the Past [Week 3]

This week was all about research and learning about my subject. Ideally, I wanted to do all my interviews with my experts this week, but due to COVID-19, many had busy schedules.

I did an interview with Fabio Morreale on Thursday at 11am. Fabio is a lecturer in music at the University of Auckland, where he is currently researching the impact of technology on music creation. He taught me about the ethics of both music production and technology creation. People can innovate music to a great extent but need to ask themselves - why? Should I really make that? He said this in regards to fully automated song generation. This helped me guide my insights. Although x could be the future of music, should it be? There were also some great points worrying about the music industry’s focus on money rather than the artists.

I also did an interview with my dad Young Ly on Friday at 11am. Young is the CEO of Serato, an NZ company that makes the software for DAWs. Although he doesn’t have a background in music, I thought that his Computer Science degree and his position in a music tech company could provide tremendous future insight. We discussed the direction that DAW software is heading in. The majority of points point toward accessible music. Music tech companies aim to crack the challenging problems in music synthesis and make it easier for a broader range of people to produce. I thought it was exciting learning about music’s shift to being user-friendly. It made me rethink my progressive insights and think more about user interaction.

Insights

Here are my three insights that I want to build upon. As I mentioned previously, I am rethinking these insights regarding how progressive and out-there they are. However, I think that the research that went into them is excellent development toward my final crystallized insight. For each of the three, there is a smaller insight that I had made previously. This was before I knew how to properly present an insight. These beta insights will be coloured red.

Machine learning advancements will allow AI to generate music pieces and genres.

A new music genre pioneered by machine learning and artificial intelligence will be prevalent, creating a new breed of producers and new creative opportunities in DAW innovation.

We’ve already seen machine learning evidence guiding the music process in SKYGEE’s ‘Hello World’ album. At the present time, a human is needed majorly through the production. It is not too far-fetched to assume that in 10 years, there will be algorithms that can produce pieces with little to no human interaction.

How music is experienced will change with the introduction of mainstream virtual reality.

Mainstream virtual reality will create a way of music interaction that eradicates music festivals and concerts by 2050. This will reinforce the sensory and creative aspects of music production, and bring music back to being a creative experience rather than a money-making industry.

Imogen Heap’s collaboration with TheWaveVR has already produced a small-scale music concert. And there are ways to experience large scale festivals like Coachella through a VR headset in the present day. VR headsets are already at a consumer level of price, with the cheapest headsets available being $15-$20 dollars with a phone. A new breed of music festivals could include VR with spacial recognition being implemented into the software or a music festival that you can enjoy at home.

Music will develop to be less static and more interactive with developing streaming and creation technology.

Interactive music will replace static music recordings with audio available to manipulation by the creator or the viewers by 2050.

To quote Imogen Heap, “As a musician, we have lots of different stems, lots of different versions of songs. I like the idea that you can explore an earlier version of a song by peeling back an old bit of wallpaper or something.” At this point in time, music is generally released as a final recording. Sometimes the creator or other artists can revise it and release a second recording. But with almost every piece of music, there are previous and future iterations that never come to light. One example of a streaming service that manipulates songs based on what the user wants is Pyro. Pyro mixes songs together based on the beats per minute. It acts as a personal DJ so that you never have to listen to one song end - it all mixes together. I predict that music streaming services will be able to provide manipulated songs that are interactive by the user by 2050.

Sustainability and Climate Change

It was tricky to think of some sustainability insights related to music as music doesn’t impact the environment as much as other things. However, I brought it up in my interviews and did some research to come up with 10. I also learned that streaming music emits CO2, which I didn’t know previously!

1. Music will be entirely digital with no mainstream physical components (CDs, vinyl, etc.) by 2040

2. Tech developments will bring a new way of music consumption that uses less CO2 by 2050.

3. DAWs will be completely software-based by 2040.

4. VR will eliminate the travel required for music (collaborations, concerts, fan greetings, etc.) by 2060.

5. All physical components needed to produce music will be sustainable/biodegradable by 2060.

6. Music will be back in the hands of the creators, and music corporations will become obsolete.

7. Climate change will become a music topic trend in the next 10 years.

8. Music festivals will become sustainable in the next 15 years.

9. The advanced digital tools to create music will become free for everyone by 2050.

10. Machine learning will create music by 2060, eliminating the majority of the middlemen and creating new jobs.

More Precedent Research for Depth

The future of music predicted by Jim Morrison in 1969

In an interview with Rolling Stone, late singer Jim Morrison accurately predicted the future of music. He outlined the main genres in America at the time - blues and folk - mentioning how rock dying out was bringing people back to their musical roots. He predicted that in 4 or 5 years from 1969, there will emerge a new genre of music. This music will have elements from blues and folk and a third genre that is yet to be discovered. “A lot of people like Mozart were prodigies; they were writing brilliant works at very young ages,” Morrison mused, “That’s probably what’s going to happen: some brilliant kid will come along and be popular. I can see a lone artist with a lot of tapes and electrical … like an extension of the Moog synthesizer — a keyboard with the complexity and richness of a whole orchestra, y’ know? There’s somebody out there, working in a basement, just inventing a whole new musical form.” He later described envisioning one person with a lot of complex machines around them and singing using electronics. This hypothesis was made before the introduction of the modern computer.

Members of his band’ The Doors’ lived through his prediction when they were invited to create track ‘Breakn’ a Sweat’ in 2012 with famous EDM musician Skrillex. One band that comes to mind that fits Jim Morrison’s blues, folk, and electronic prediction is Tame Impala.

VR concerts

Imogen Heap is helping to facilitate a new brand of concerts - VR concerts. Together with company TheWaveVR, fans are invited into a 3D modelled version of her home where her hologram performs. They can see other fans and interact and experience music through both sound and visuals. Co-founder and CEO of TheWaveVR Adam Arrigo describes how they have been using the space to hold concerts for other artists. For example, Iranian musician Ash Koosha, who previously could not perform in America due to Trump’s travel ban. Through this space, he was able to play for Americans for the first time. Quoted from an interview with The Verge, “It can close borders. That’s what’s really exciting.” Imogen herself is known to be a great innovator of music. She sees the future of this project, encouraging interactive music and music production. “Music has become more of a background thing that goes on most of the time,” Imogen says to The Verge, speculating about VR’s future. “Quite a few people actually sit down and listen to music because it’s so on tap. As a musician, we have lots of different stems, lots of different versions of songs. I like the idea that you can explore an earlier version of a song by peeling back an old bit of wallpaper or something.” She describes how listeners may be able to play with the songs of their favourite artists in VR space to create something new.

Your brain on music

Musician and neurologist Alan Harvey talks about music’s drive of cooperation and interaction in his TED talk. He describes how music can affect blood pressure, heart rate, immune system, and hormones. How it can make you want to move or how playing a music piece can give you feelings of excitement and accomplishment. Archeology has revealed that music dates back to our earliest ancestors in Africa - a 43,000-year-old bone flute being the oldest instrument found to date. Harvey goes on to explain human’s processing of music. “For most people, language is processed on the left side of the brain… whereas music has a more right-hemisphere bias. Music also activates pathways within a complex structure called the limbic system… it’s involved in learning and memory and also our emotional responses. Music also activates a reward center buried deep in our brain.” To further show music’s live effect on the brain, Harvey brings in a colleague with an EEG (electroencephalogram) on his head. A live orchestra plays songs while the electrode feed is displayed on a projector. He describes that when your brain listens to music that you like, you get a burst of dopamine in the brain segment linked to empathy. There’s also a second burst of dopamine that happens when an emotional peak occurs in a piece.

References

Blistein, J. (2019, May 23). Is streaming music dangerous to the environment? One researcher is sounding the alarm. Rolling Stone. https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-features/environmental-impact-streaming-music-835220/ Deahl, D. (2018, August 23). Inside Imogen heap’s cutting-edge VR concert. The Verge. https://www.theverge.com/2018/8/23/17769166/imogen-heap-concert-oculus-vr-headset-thewavevr Fischer, R. (2016, March 22). How Jim Morrison predicted EDM to rolling stone in 1969. Rolling Stone. https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-news/how-jim-morrison-predicted-edm-to-rolling-stone-in-1969-235437/ Harvey, A. (2018, June 27). Your brain on music | Alan Harvey | TEDxPerth [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MZFFwy5fwYI Morrison, J. (2006, May 4). Jim Morrison - The Future of Music [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iS3dIyHpAgc Rubin, R. (2020, July 13). Vendors face the tough reality of affordable VR. ZDNet. https://www.zdnet.com/article/vendors-face-the-tough-reality-of-affordable-vr/ Serato. (2020). Now available: Serato Pyro. Serato | The world’s best DJ and music production software. https://serato.com/latest/blog/18449/now-available-serato-pyro The Verge. (2018, August 23). Inside Imogen Heap’s cutting-edge VR concert | The Future of Music with Dani Deahl [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HoDqeunBH10 Your EDM. (2014, October 29). The doors' Jim Morrison predicted EDM was the future in 1969 [Video]. https://www.youredm.com/2014/10/07/jim-morrison-predicts-future-music-edm-1969/